From a revised -101.7 (previously -101.7) billion, from a revised -98.2 billion in December, its worst monthly showing since -112.4 billion in October 2022. Contact us to discuss your needs. -- A little closer to real-world numbers, initial year-to-year headline March 2023 PPI Construction Inflation eased to 15.6%, from a minimally revised 16.1% (previously 16.2%) in February 2023. The Real Housewives of Atlanta The Bachelor Sister Wives 90 Day Fiance Wife Swap The Amazing Race Australia Married at First Sight The Real Housewives of Dallas My 600-lb Life Last Week Tonight with . The pattern of current activity remains consistent with a deepening, albeit not formally recognized Economic Recession. U.S. Dollar. Evolving Circumstances Remain Extremely Strong for Gold and Silver, and Weak for the U.S. Dollar and Stocks, Despite Central Bank or Other Systemic Machinations to the Contrary, Intractable and Deteriorating Conditions Still Signal No Imminent Economic Recovery, Irrespective of Some Bounces in March Activity Against Weather-Driven February Collapses INFORMAL ECONOMY SIZE AS A PERCENTAGE OF GDP. Pandemic-Disrupted U.3 Unemployment Effectively Was 9.0% in November 2020, Not the Headlined 6.7% That said, more commonly, sharp annual declines in recent months have tended to be statistically significant, but not the month-to-month changes. In general terms, methodological shifts in government reporting have depressed reported inflation, moving the concept of the CPI away from being a measure of the cost of living needed to maintain a constant standard of living. "John Williams Shadow Government Statistics" is an electronic newsletter service that exposes and analyzes flaws in current U.S. government economic data and reporting, as well as in certain private-sector numbers, and provides an assessment of underlying economic and financial conditions, net of financial-market and political hype. In the charts to the right we show two SGS-Alternate CPI estimates: One based on the pre-1990 official methodology for computing the CPI-U, and the other based on the methodology which was employed prior to 1980. (11) April 14th (CassInfo.com) The March 2023 Cass Freight Index release noted that The shipments component of the Cass Freight Index fell 1.0% m/m in March as freight markets continue to work through an extended soft patch. That monthly decline of 1.0% (-1.0%) was not seasonally adjusted, with a related unadjusted year-to-year drop of 4.0% (-4.0%). ET; Friday, May 5th, the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases its estimates of April 2023 Unemployment and Employment (8:30 a.m. Bureau of Labor Statistics Reveals It Cannot Measure the CPI Properly, At Present [Again, the E-Mail Updates are available to you as part of both new and existing regular subscription; just request it by e-mail from johnwilliams@shadowstats.com .] Momentum of Fourth-Quarter Data Suggests a First-Quarter 2021 GDP Contraction, As the Pandemic and Political Tumult Take on Negative New Dimensions April 2023 Annual Benchmark Revisions lowered historical levels and growth estimates for inflation-adjusted Real Retail Sales back to January 2021, likely foreshadowing some downside revisions to headline GDP in its later 2023 benchmarking. Annual growth in Payrolls has been slowing since February 2022. November New-Home Sales Collapsed by a Meaningful 11.1% (-11.1%) in the Month, On Top of Major Downside Revisions to Sales in Each of the Prior Three Months SHADOWSTATS SUBSCRIPTIONS Economic and financial issues raised here are reviewed more extensively, along with exclusive graphs, and expanded economic, financial market and monetary assessment in subscriber-only Commentaries [monthly going forward], and more frequently on a timely basis in the subscriber-only e-mails of daily changes in the DAILY UPDATE (as the news breaks, see the prior paragraph). Tax gap program summary findings | Australian Taxation Office Year-to-year Core PPI Inflation (net of Food and Energy) eased from 5.1% to 4.3%. Economic, FOMC, financial-market, political and social circumstances all continue to evolve along with the Pandemic and its aftermath in still-unfolding, extraordinary political circumstances. Adjusted for seasonal factors, the monthly decline was 3.8% (-3.8%), with the year-to-year drop at 3.6% (-3.6%). How Accurate is ShadowStats on The Understatement of US Inflation With Economic Issues No. 30 -- Hiding in the Shadows : The Growth of the MARCH 2023 MONEY SUPPLY AND MONETARY BASE -- (April 25th, Federal Reserve Board [FRB], with ShadowStats Supplement). -- In line with FOMC rate hikes, annual Payroll Growth has been slowing for the last fourteen months, from 5.3% in February 2022 to 2.7% in March 2023, suggestive of softening economic activity. Where current inflationary pressures appear to be tied to excessive Monetary stimulus out of the Fed, not due to an overheating economy, still higher interest rates, now, would do little to contain inflation, while at the same time higher interest rates would continue to impair economic activity. Ongoing rate hikes at each of the last several FOMC Meetings to reduce inflation, remain counterproductive in the context of an already deepening Economic Recession and resurgent gasoline prices. Stock Indices Are At or Near All-Time Highs, Coming into the First Anniversary of the Pre-Pandemic Stock-Market Peaks and Subsequent Crashes Public Comment on Inflation Measurement & the Chained CPI-U, Update 2016Update 2015Hyperinflation 20142014 Second InstallmentDeficit Reality. Effectively fully surveyed, Permits were down by a deepening, seasonally adjusted year-to-year drop of 24.8% (-24.8%) in March 2023, against a revised, narrowed 16.5% (-16.5%) [previously a 17.9% (-17.9%) February decline]. -- A little closer to real-world numbers, initial year-to-year headline March 2023 PPI Construction Inflation eased to 15.6%, from a minimally revised 16.1% (previously 16.2%) in February 2023. Indeed, setting up accelerating inflation or hyperinflation, current extreme Monetary and Fiscal stimuli likely will be expanded, not reduced. On Top of a Downside Revision, October Building Permits Monthly Change Flattened Out at a Statistically Significant 0.0%, Analysis Behind and Beyond Government Economic Reporting, Some Biographical & Additional Background Information. The Employment series is based on actual Payroll Taxes paid by Employers, as opposed to irregular (Pandemic-induced, telephone-only) impaired surveys of the Public as to Unemployment. Gasoline prices having been in an upswing since January 2023, gaining 11.7% since December 2022, as of the just-released April 2023 monthly average [EIA]. PLEASE NOTE: In 10 days (March 24th), this Retail Sales Series will undergo an annual benchmark revision. Commentaries by Date - Shadowstats.com Separately, all as measured against Pre-Pandemic Troughs, traditional M2, which has not been redefined, was up by 34.7% in March 2023, versus readings 36.4% in February 2023 and 37.3% in January, while the broadest ShadowStats Ongoing-M3 Estimate notched lower in March to 30.2%, from 31.9% in both February and January 2023. Further background on the SGS-Alternate CPI series is available in our Public Comment on Inflation Measurement. January 2021 Producer Price Index Monthly Inflation Hit a Record, 10-Year High Read more about the World Economics Informal Economy database. FOMC action looms this week, amidst signs of a tanking Economy and a serious Inflation problem. For all readers, in general, if you have any questions or otherwise would like to communicate, please e-mail johnwilliams@shadowstats.com or call (707) 763-5786. -- The University of Michigans full-month release of the April 2023 Consumer Sentiment reading held little changed at 63.5, against its initial estimate of 63.5, up from 62.0 in March 2023, holding shy by 37.1% (-37.1%)[previously by 38.6% (-38.6%) in March] of ever recovering its February 2020 pre-Pandemic peak level of 101.0. By its very nature, the shadow economy is difficult to measure. Services include customized forecasts and analyses of the general economy, presentations and consultations in-house for clients. ShadowStats will re-address these numbers at that time. 1461. Real Annual Growth in New Orders for Durable Goods Turned Negative, Amidst Renewed Slowing in Commercial Aircraft Orders Monthly Annual and Post-Pandemic Payroll Declines Have Stabilized Around Minus Six-to-Seven Percent for the Last Eight Month, Weakest Showing Since 1946 In terms of quarter-to-quarter change, despite a sharp monthly decline in March 2023, those January and February auto sales pulled relative real 1q2023 activity up at an annualized quarterly pace of 3.10%, following respective consecutive annualized quarter-to-quarter declines of 3.29% (-3.29%) and 2.35% (-2.36%) in 4q2022 and 3q2022. He believes the economy has collapsed, based upon his calculations on economic. Shadow Government Statistics or Shadowstats is a blog run by John Williams in which he re-analyzes government economic /unemployment published statistics in order to restate them. A similar pattern is likely with the Census Bureaus May 1st release of March 2023 nominal Construction Spending, given the activity patterns and related needed inflation-adjustments already in play. -- The Feds Balance Sheet Reduction formally began in June 2022 and should have begun to relieve some Money Supply pressures on Inflation at that time, in theory. Deepening Deficits in Fourth-Quarter and Annual 2020 Real Net-Exports (GDP) and the Related Real Merchandise Trade Deficit Were the Worst Ever in Modern U.S. Discussions on the inflation threat and re-accelerating money growth are found in Special Hyperinflation Commentary, Issue No. For the most-liquid Basic M1 Money Supply measure in March 2023, dollar levels and growth levels moved higher against the Pre-Pandemic Trough, still suggestive of massive mounting, not easing inflation pressures. Surging prices still reflect the extraordinary Money Supply stimulus following the Pandemic-driven collapse. -- In contrast, the ShadowStats Inflation-Corrected GDP Estimate (updated and graphed in full detail on the ALTERNATE DATA Tab) is corrected for the understatement of the headline inflation used in deflating Nominal GDP to Real GDP. The best Honkai: Star Rail Trailblazer build is all about . Shadow Government Statistics - Home Page - ShadowStats -- Extended Fed coverage will follows in the later SYSTEMIC RISK SECTION -- FEDERAL RESERVE, with an updated story following the pending May 3rd FOMC coverage, as well as a comprehensive review of Federal Reserve Monetary Policies and Federal Government Fiscal Policies in pending Commentary No. Over the decades, well in excess of 1,000 presentations have been given on the economic outlook, or on approaches to analyzing economic data, to clientslarge and smallincluding talks with members of the business, banking, government, press, academic, brokerage and investment communities. HEADLINE ECONOMIC, INFLATION AND MONETARY COVERAGE OF THE LAST MONTH AND OTHER KEY NUMBERS: (1) April 28th (University of Michigan). HEADLINE ECONOMIC, INFLATION AND MONETARY COVERAGE OF THE LAST MONTH AND OTHER KEY NUMBERS: (1) April 28th (University of Michigan). That revised February inflation of 16.1% was much higher than the year-to-year nominal growth of 5.3% in parallel February Construction Spending, resulting in an unrevised, inflation adjusted, real year-to-year decline of 9.5% (-9.5%) in February 2023 [See extended comments in later Note (16)]. Congress keeps delaying U.S. Government Shutdowns, with continual increases in and extensions to the Debt Ceiling, amidst ongoing political games. Tourism Statistics - Austrade Where January 2021 Year-to-Year Manufacturing Contracted by 1.0% (-1.0%), It Also Contracted by 1.8% (-1.8%) from January 2019, Two Years Ago (12) April 13th (Bureau of Labor Statistics). FOR SUBSCRIBERS Beyond the pending monthly Commentary, graphs covering the latest numbers and most other economic, inflation and monetary detail, are available to you by e-mail, as part of your existing, regular subscription. CPI-adjusted, Real Retail Sales declined by 1.04% (-1.04%) month-to-month in March 2023, down by 1.95% (-1.95%) year-to-year, with First-Quarter 2023 Real Retail Sales declining 0.30% (-0.30%) year-to-year, down for the fourth time in the last five quarters, otherwise gyrating with extreme volatility in recent monthly automobile sales. In terms of quarter-to-quarter change, despite a sharp monthly decline in March 2023, those January and February auto sales pulled relative real 1q2023 activity up at an annualized quarterly pace of 3.10%, following respective consecutive annualized quarter-to-quarter declines of 3.29% (-3.29%) and 2.35% (-2.36%) in 4q2022 and 3q2022. All previous Commentaries are available in, or accessible from, the upper left-hand column of this www.shadowstats.com Home Page. Shadowstats debunked. Yet, with the new Fed Funds Rate at a 15-plus-year high (since July 2007), the earlier FOMC rate hikes already are pummeling the economy, but again, not relieving inflation. ET) and Press Conference (2:30 p.m. Economic Recovery Is Not as Close as Hyped by the Consensus Outlook THIS WEEKS PENDING DAILY UPDATE COVERAGE OF FOMC AND ECONOMIC ACTIVITY (Monday, May 1st to Friday, May 5th): (Monday) March 2023 Construction Spending will be covered Tuesday, (Late Wednesday and Thursday) May 2023 FOMC Meeting, (Thursday) March 2023 Real Merchandise Trade Deficit, (Friday) April 2023 Employment and Unemployment. GENERAL COVERAGE: Again, on the Inflation front, it is the bloated Money Supply and gasoline price disruptions that are driving or affecting higher inflation, at present, not an overheating economy. (February 3rd 2023/April 5th 2022) U.S. GOVERNMENT DETERIORATING FISCAL CONDITIONS/ INTENSIFYING FISCAL CRISIS [In context of the United States once again at the brink of breaking its Debt Ceiling and risking default ] Grievously malfeasant U.S. Government fiscal policies continue to contribute meaningfully to the rapidly accelerating pace of U.S. Inflation. Go to https://www.cassinfo.com/freight-audit-payment/cass-transportation-indexes/march-2023 for full detail. The annual drop of 22.0% (-22.0%) in March was against a 23.1% (-23.1%) annual decline in February, and was the eighth straight month of annual contraction deeper than minus 20% (go to https://www.nar.realtor/existing-home-sales for details). ET); Thursday, May 4th, the Census Bureau and Bureau of Economic Analysis release the March 2023 Trade Deficit (8:30 a.m. Shadow Cloud Gaming: What You Need to Know | Tom's Guide B U S I N E S S .. C Y C L E -- RECESSION-DEPRESSION TIMING Updated September 21, 2021 [Full review and update pending in No. Headline March 2023 Producer Price Index (PPI) annual inflation dropped sharply from 4.9% in February 2023 to 2.8% in March 2023, due to the relative easing against the extreme oil and gasoline price spikes triggered by the year-ago Russian invasion of Ukraine. For all readers, in general, if you have any questions or otherwise would like to communicate, please e-mail johnwilliams@shadowstats.com or call (707) 763-5786. That said, the initial estimate of the theoretical GDP-equivalent 4q2022 Gross Domestic Income (GDI) showed an annualized quarterly contraction of 1.14% (-1.14%), versus an annualized gain of 3.76% in 3q2022, with the more traditional Gross National Product (GNP) gaining at an initial annualized 2.38% in 4q2022 GDP, versus 2.44% in 3q2022. Including Commercial Aircraft, aggregate New Orders recovered pre-Pandemic levels in Third-Quarter 2020. ShadowStats postings of the June 2021 Commentary and before - back to 2004 - are open to all, accessible by clicking on Archives, at the bottom of the left-hand column of this ShadowStats homepage. The linear transformation of CPI tracks the $89 shadowstats series almost perfectly. That said, again, Fiscal Years 2021 and 2022 (FY 2021, FY 2022, FY 2023) circumstances and prospects have continued to deteriorate meaningfully, at an accelerating pace, from conditions at the end of FY 2020 (see the next paragraph), exploding anew into the still unfolding, disastrous FY 2023. Against its Pre-Pandemic Trough (PPT), ShadowStats March 2023 Basic M1 (Currency plus Demand Deposits [83% of the old pre-May 2020 M1]) moved higher to 120.5%, from a revised 119.8% (previously 119.3%) in February, still shy of its historic peak of 123.2% in August 2022. Noted the by the U of M, Despite the increasingly negative news on business conditions heard by consumers, their short and long-run economic outlook improved modestly balanced by worsening assessments of personal finances due to higher expenses, reflecting the ongoing pain stemming from continued high prices. [Go to http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu for the full details.]. The service costs $49.95 for a single month, $39.95 per month for a three-month subscription and $34.95 per month for a 12-month subscription. The CPI chart on the home page reflects our estimate of inflation for today as if it were calculated the same way it was in 1990. Australia's Government Strengthens Grip With By-Election Win. Using the same data collection and calculation methodologies as the Bureau of Labor Statistics used in the 1980s, John Williams, the founder of ShadowStats, determined that headline inflation should be much higher than 5.4%, the latest June release. A fully updated Money Supply Special Report will follow. If you are not a Subscriber, and wish to be, see the next paragraph. Although I am known formally as Walter J. Williams, my friends call me John.For 30 years, I have been a private consulting economist and, out of necessity, had to become a specialist in government economic reporting. CPI-adjusted, Real Retail Sales declined by 1.04% (-1.04%) month-to-month in March 2023, down by 1.95% (-1.95%) year-to-year, with First-Quarter 2023 Real Retail Sales declining 0.30% (-0.30%) year-to-year, down for the fourth time in the last five quarters, otherwise gyrating with extreme volatility in recent monthly automobile sales. Despite a small monthly narrowing in the headline March 2023 Unemployment Rate, details remained consistent with an unfolding recession. (I) - BOTTOM LINE COVERAGE: A ninth, consecutive FOMC Meeting Interest Rate hike is expected Wednesday, yet the U.S. Economy already is in intensifying Recession. I also have provided testimony before Congress (details here). FOR SUBSCRIBERS Beyond the pending monthly Commentary, graphs covering the latest numbers and most other economic, inflation and monetary detail, are available to you by e-mail, as part of your existing, regular subscription. ET]. Nonetheless, systemic Turmoil is still evolving, with both the Federal Reserve and U.S. Government continuing to drive uncontrolled U.S. dollar creation, between unconstrained Money Supply growth (irrespective of Balance Sheet Reduction) and uncontained Deficit Spending, with U.S. Treasury Debt currently pushing to break the $31.4 Trillion Debt Ceiling. 1461 will review the underlying GDP, GDI and GNP numbers. (3) April 26th (Census Bureau). -- Headline Fourth-Quarter 2022 GDP inflation (Implicit Price Deflator [IPD}) came in at a revised third estimate of an annualized pace of 3.92% (previously 3.93% and 3.51%), against an unrevised 4.36% in 3q2022, and up by an unrevised year-to-year 6.41% (initially 6.30%), versus an unrevised 7.15% in Third-Quarter 2022, which remained at a 42-year high, outside of the recent inflation spike. The revisions did not change quarterly patterns meaningfully, but did show that broader headline activity generally had been some somewhat slower than previously estimated in the last two years [graphs were plotted in the Subscriber-only e-mail of April 14th]. Separately, circumstances are exacerbated directly, at present, by spiking, weekly gasoline prices, as seen through the week of April 17th. Money Supply and Monetary Base detail follows in the later FEDERAL RESERVE Section and its SYSTEMIC RISK -- MONEY SUPPLY AND MONETARY BASE coverage (just keep scrolling down), along with expanded material in conjunction with the updated Money Supply numbers and graph posted on the ALTERNATE DATA Tab of www.shadowstats.com (see the link above). Here is how the March 2023 Money Supply numbers shaped up. March 7th builds: Power up the pink archer. The Federal Reserve Overhauled Its Money Supply Reporting, Redefining Traditional M1 from 34.8% to 93.4% of a Not-Redefined Total M2 Nonetheless, January 2021 CPI-U Annual Inflation Hit a Soft, Ten-Month High of 1.4%, Boosted by Gasoline Prices, but Constrained by Mixed Food and Core Inflation This Masked Accelerating Flight-to-Liquidity in Traditional M1 from Non-M1 Components of M2 (7) April 20th (National Association of Realtors NAR). (14) April 7th (Bureau of Labor Statistics BLS, and ShadowStats.com). The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. (13) April 12th (Bureau of Labor Statistics). November Industrial Production and Its Dominant Manufacturing Sector Showed Deepening Year-to-Year Declines, While the Mining Sector Showed a Narrowed Annual Plunge, Thanks to Rising Oil Prices Sales declined 22% from one year ago. The renewed monthly decline followed a 13.8% monthly jump in March, the first monthly gain since January 2022. Separately, the inflation issue is complicated by independently rising gasoline prices, not by any overheating economy! While the January 2021 Cass Freight Index Gained Year-to-Year for the Fourth Straight Month, It Also Contracted by 1.6% (-1.6%) from Two Years Ago Ukraine Latest: War Casts Shadow Over Votes in Bulgaria, Finland. Primers & Reports. (12) April 13th (Bureau of Labor Statistics). First-Quarter 2021 GDP Remains at Risk of Relapsing into Quarterly Contraction Despite Talk of Tightening in 2022 or 2023, FOMC Is Easing Anew in Its Latest Actions, Benchmarked Industrial Production Revised Sharply Lower; Both Manufacturing and Mining Were Hit Hard Underlying headlines of better-quality U.S. economic numbers, reviewed here in Part II [see Points (1) to (18)], suggest that the United States has been in Recession since First-Quarter 2022, allowing for the political games played with the Strategic Petroleum Reserve depletion, which otherwise also accounted for the headline boost in Second-Half 2022 (Third- and Fourth-Quarter 2022) GDP growth. Yet, with the new Fed Funds Rate at a 15-plus-year high (since July 2007), the earlier FOMC rate hikes already are pummeling the economy, but again, not relieving inflation. A Review-Preview of 2020 into 2024, it will incorporate all the latest economic details. John Williams, Fundamentals Could Not Be Stronger for Gold and Silver, nor Weaker for the U.S. Dollar and Stocks, Despite Fed or Market Nonsense to the Contrary (17) March 30th (Bureau of Economic Analysis BEA, See Note 2) -- Third and Final Estimate of Fourth Quarter 2022 (4q2022) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) [The GDP Alternate Data Tab has been updated] - In continuing downside revision, the third-estimate of inflation-adjusted real 4q2022 GDP revised lower to an annualized quarter-to-quarter gain of 2.57%, in its third and final estimate, from its second estimate of 2.68%, and its initial estimate of 2.89%, versus 3.24% in 3q2022. He received an A.B. Understate inflation and you end up overstating the Real or inflation-adjusted level of growth in GDP. The Committee anticipates that some additional policy firming may be appropriate in order to attain a stance of monetary policy that is sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to 2 percent over time. I realized the GNP numbers were faulty, corrected them for my client (official reporting was similarly revised a couple of years later) and the model worked again, at least for a while, until GNP methodological changes eventually made the underlying data worthless. Minimizing Reporting of Such, the Fed Just Redefined Money Supply M1; Given Newly Defined M1-Like Liquidity Characteristics for M2 Savings Deposits, Savings Have Been Shifted Retroactively from M2 to into M1, Effective as of May 2020 Chances Are Reduced for Moderating Extreme Monetary and Fiscal Policies Current U.S. Economy Remains Far from a Full Recovery We thank Cass Information Systems for sharing their survey information.
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